Been going over this article again, just had one quick question. In your conclusion, I understand all the bullet points that help give an indication of the health of the market, the only one I can't is the first one. Why is it good for futures > forward in the Brent complex?
the forward Brent is just the Brent Swap right, which is derived from the Brent futures. Confused where you say that these are the actual barrels changing hands, wouldnt that just be the physical premium/discount to Dated and the Brent swap is a way to hedge it so that you are left with only that discount/premium?
no no, that was my bad. Brent forwards are not a swap strictly speaking, is an agreement to buy/sell at a fixed price (hence you treat it as a swap). When it loads it becomes Dated, and then you have a myriad of derivatives that go around those two price points.
Good one, because I wanted to explain the DFL, and you need the front month (Nov) since you need to compare Dated which falls within that contract expiration. The use of Dec forwards is because you need more than 30 days in advance to do the arregement for the cargo, hence the cfds are priced against that month.
but nov futures are not trading anymore no? so is the nov futures that you used the average london minute marker prices? if you are looking for Nov DFL, can you just plot Nov Dated against Nov brent swap?
so we start with a dec brent swap and we end with an implied intramonth dated brent swap curve? which we can then use to compare to dec dated values frombrokers and banks etc
Also, you mentioned that DFL "links Dated brent with the ICE Futures contract". Isn't DFLs the spread between dated brent and brent swap?
the Brent swap is derived from the brent futures, the swap is just a weighted price formula of two brent futures (usually like 20-21days of 1 future and like 1 or 2 from the next future)
Been going over this article again, just had one quick question. In your conclusion, I understand all the bullet points that help give an indication of the health of the market, the only one I can't is the first one. Why is it good for futures > forward in the Brent complex?
Is CFD always 10 days from today? Platts seems to have the CFD week defined as fixed Thursday to Wednesday.
Dated is fixed 10 to 30 days forward, sometimes you can have a cfd pricing a few days before those 10 days
Awesome stuff thanks. Trade paper for a shop
In Dubai. Keen for. USA move if you’re ever hiring 👍🏼👍🏼. Appreciate this explanation. Worth more than the 5k platts seminar I just did lols
Thanks man, I'd rather be un Dubai
bit confused. you are talking nov brent when we are on Oct 6. Rightnow the m1 brent is Dec and month 2 is January.
Ignore the dates, this was done just on the day the contract rolled... I had bad timing with this one
the forward Brent is just the Brent Swap right, which is derived from the Brent futures. Confused where you say that these are the actual barrels changing hands, wouldnt that just be the physical premium/discount to Dated and the Brent swap is a way to hedge it so that you are left with only that discount/premium?
no no, that was my bad. Brent forwards are not a swap strictly speaking, is an agreement to buy/sell at a fixed price (hence you treat it as a swap). When it loads it becomes Dated, and then you have a myriad of derivatives that go around those two price points.
understood chief thank you, so the Brent forwards here would be a physical agreement (typically as a differential to some grade)
Question why not dec futures but nov futures?
Good one, because I wanted to explain the DFL, and you need the front month (Nov) since you need to compare Dated which falls within that contract expiration. The use of Dec forwards is because you need more than 30 days in advance to do the arregement for the cargo, hence the cfds are priced against that month.
but nov futures are not trading anymore no? so is the nov futures that you used the average london minute marker prices? if you are looking for Nov DFL, can you just plot Nov Dated against Nov brent swap?
Thanks!
got you! this is a snapshot from last Monday before contract roll, now you could do Dec ICE to Jan forward ± cfd
so we start with a dec brent swap and we end with an implied intramonth dated brent swap curve? which we can then use to compare to dec dated values frombrokers and banks etc
Also, you mentioned that DFL "links Dated brent with the ICE Futures contract". Isn't DFLs the spread between dated brent and brent swap?
Thx!
the Brent swap is derived from the brent futures, the swap is just a weighted price formula of two brent futures (usually like 20-21days of 1 future and like 1 or 2 from the next future)